There is more to the eye in the official photo and video of Indonesia President Prabowo on the phone to President-elect Trump. Australia misses the vital details.
It’s a carefully composed and staged official photograph and video that says it all. No, it’s not the ‘where’s Wally’ photo that has President Biden wandering behind a palm tree at the G20 official group photo.
It’s the photo of Indonesian President Prabowo in his office and on the phone to President-elect Trump. His left hand holds the phone to his ear. His right hand rests on his desktop beside a folded edition of CHINA DAILY, China’s premier newspaper.
The photo composition sends a clear message for those who want to look, but Australian viewers have chosen to focus on the more obvious. Some commentary picked up on the apparent servility of Prabowo calling Trump ‘Sir” as an indication that Indonesia was somehow cowered by the United States and that this boded good things for Australia’s position as the US deputy in the region.
It is a misinterpretation of a courtesy common in ASEAN and of the obeisance of everyday American usage that insists on calling any potential superior sir or ma’am.
Defence Minister Marles and other military hawks from the US and Japan visiting Darwin were comfortably smug with the apparent evidence of Indonesia’s coming to heel with increased joint military exercises in northern Australia and participation in training on Indonesia soil. The grand plans of AUKUS access to the South China Sea seem intact.
Prabowo’s carefully choreographed photographic pose would seem to suggest that this simplistic cleaving of us and them is a little more complex and sophisticated than Australia’s thinking.
Australia has shown itself more than willing to paper over the cracks when it comes to Indias refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its increased purchases of Russian oil, weapons and equipment, its egregious human rights record and Modis embrace of Putin immediately following the Indian election. India, as a member of the QUAD, is apparently forgiven and these transgressions are simply overlooked.
The same wilfully blind eye is applied to Indonesia. Prabowo’s first international visit was to China, where he met with President Xi. Together they reached agreements on resource development and downstream processing that has quietly enraged both US and Australian miners which had been exploiting these resources.
Indonesia also conducted its first-ever joint naval drills with Russia. It signalled its desire to join the BRICS bloc which includes both China and Russia.
More disturbingly for the AUKUS hawks, Indonesia and China have made significant advances in discussions around managing the competing claims in the South China Sea. In a joint statement in Beijing, the two sides announced their commitment to joint development in areas of the South China Sea where they have competing claims.
Some commentators have gone as far as to suggest that it is a tacit recognition of Chinas controversial nine dash line. This may be a bridge too far, but certainly the opening of discussions is a departure from the hard-line favoured by AUKUS, and, as we are told incessantly by Australian media, supposedly by the rest of ASEAN.
The ASEAN perspective on the South China Sea is more nuanced, although readers would struggle to know this if their reading is limited to Australian media.
The carefully staged official photo suggests that the Australian assumption that Indonesia is unreservedly aligned with, or happy to accept, AUKUS objectives is an assumption resting on shaky grounds. Although not making a major issue of the nuclearisation of Australia’s submarine fleet it remains clear from ASEAN media and discussions in other regional forums that acceptance of this fait accompli is begrudging and not without concerns.
The most efficient deployment of AUKUS submarines into the South China Sea requires transit of Indonesian waters. There is a recognised right of innocent passage but there is no guarantee that in the case of conflict that such passage through Indonesian waters would be regarded as innocent. A forced passage may be regarded as an act of aggression.
It may be that we read too much, or too little, into this official photograph. However, at the very least, it suggests that President Prabowo is more willing to be intelligently informed of China perspectives on global issues than many in the Australian policy hierarchy.
It difficult to imagine Albanese, Marles or even Wong reading CHINA DAILY, let alone being photographed with it. They take their China views second-hand, filtered through Australian media’s prejudicial coverage and the security services which class China as a threat.
Prabowo’s photo suggest Indonesia will take a more sophisticated and nuanced approach to the China relationship and that undermines some comfortable Australian assumptions.
DARYL GUPPY
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for mainland Chinese media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man". He is a former national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The views expressed here are his own.
The TPNPB News-Per 23 November 2024Shared by:Sebby Sambom (Jubir KOMNAS TPNPB)Press Release of the Management of KOMNAS TPNPB Central Headquarters As of Saturday, November 23, 2024Please follow this report brought.!The management of KOMNAS TPNPB Central Headquarters has received an official report from Bridjen Elkius Kobak commander of TPNPB Kodap XVI Yahukimo on Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 08.00 am that; The shooting that occurred in the Blue River that resulted in a member of Kodim 1715 suffering gunshot wound and critical is on my command, Bridjen Elkius Kobak.The shooting order was immediately executed by the TPNPB Kodap XVI Yahukimo troops led by Delep Sam and his troops resulting in a Member of Kodim 1715 being critically injured on Wednesday, November 21, 2024 afternoon when the member of Kodum 1715 was returning from the Blue River towards Yahukimo town.But the identity of the victims we can report;Name : Serda Darwin GinuniTTL : Kapaor Tetang, April 19, 2022Occupation: TNI AD Code 1715 Yahukimo.Meanwhile another report issued by the Commander of the HSSB TPNPB Kodap XVI Yahukimo Battalion says that; if there are certain oknum-oknum who ask to ask for money on behalf of TPNPB in the community to immediately report to PIS TPNPB and the oknum will get its consequences according to the rules applied.Important note.!It is informed to all parties not to do any activities in the red zone areas. Because, the TPNPB Kodap XVI Yahukimo troops are carrying out operations related to the addition of Indonesian Military troops in Yahukimo at the order of president Prabowo Subianto and his cabinet.In that case, if the income for anyone who enters the war zone we are considered as Indonesian militia and it is ready to be shot dead and this should be a concern for every civilian not to do activities according to the TPNPB procedure.Thus Press Release of the Management of KOMNAS TPNPB Central Headquarters On Saturday, November 23, 2024 by Sebby Sambom Jubir TPNPB OPM.And thank you for the good cooperation.National Incharge of the TPNPB-OPM National Command Central Headquarters.General Goliath TabuniTPNPB-OPM High CommanderLieutenant General Melchizedek AwomDeputy Commander of TPNPB-OPMMajor General Terianus SattoChief of General Staff of TPNPB-OPMMajor General Lekagak TelenggenGeneral Operations Commander of TPNPB-OPM-----------------------
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