1) Australia-Indonesia: An uncertain world makes for firm friends

2) Military sends team to probe alleged missing helicopter debris

3) Economic Contraction Shows Up Papua as Jokowi's Achilles Heel

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https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-indonesia-uncertain-world-makes-firm-friends

1) Australia-Indonesia: An uncertain world makes for firm friends

The Interpreter Published 7 Feb 2020 1 1:00 

GRETA NABBS-KELLER

Both countries have more and more in common, a fact which should challenge old tropes about difference.

Indonesia’s former ambassador to Australia, Imron Cotan, recently characterised Indonesia and Australia as “like-minded” countries, speaking in the context of economic priorities ahead of President Joko (Jokowi) Widodo’s three-day visit to Australia. However, for many in the Australia media, academic, and policy community, “like-mindedness” is not the first descriptor that springs to mind when considering the relationship.

Rather, marked cultural difference is employed as the explanatory variable for all manner of imagined “crises” in bilateral ties, many of which are exaggerated by sensationalist media coverage and often attributable to more prosaic causes. Such causes include a perceived lack of policy consultation by Canberra on issues of vital national concern to Indonesia (think the deployment of US marines near Darwin, or suspending live cattle exports) and elite posturing to domestic political constituencies (think the Morrison government’s mooted Jerusalem embassy shift, or rampant economic nationalism in Indonesian election campaigns).   

But Cotan is right about like-mindedness. Geopolitical and geo-economic forces are proving the catalyst for a growing convergence of interests between Australia and Indonesia as two significant middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region. Increasingly, Australia and Indonesia have more and more in common, a fact which should challenge old tropes about difference.

The last time an Indonesian president addressed the Australian parliament was ten years ago. Much has changed since. Indonesia has been on an upward economic trajectory based on its youthful demographic dividend and massive consumer market. It is home to a thriving digital economy, is a member of the G20, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, and a foreign aid donor to other countries, formalised recently in the establishment of “Indonesia Aid”. Moreover, the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) has on numerous occasions deployed personnel to Australia to assist with natural disaster relief, the most recent being the Garuda Task Group in response to the summer bushfires.

In terms of the broader Indo-Pacific region, there have been further consequential shifts over the last decade. Under President Xi Jinping, China has become much more assertive in the prosecution of its strategic, technological, and economic interests. This ranges from its expansive investment and infrastructure program known as the Belt and Road Initiative to the increasing use of grey zone operations in the maritime and cyber domains. Both Australia and Indonesia have become more aware of the risk of political interference by state and non-state actors in their respective democratic systems.

With regard to US global leadership, the Trump presidency has cast a long shadow over the open multilateral trading system, and questions over America’s reliability as a strategic partner have been borne out in regional surveys. Such views underpin a recognition by policymakers about the need for policy choices in both strategic and economic terms as a hedge against global uncertainties.

Re-evaluating dependence on single markets in tourism, trade, and investment, and rethinking assumptions about national defence capability based on traditional strategic alliances or assumptions about military pre-eminence must, by necessity, form part of a suite of considerations for Indonesian and Australian policymakers.

Although Jokowi’s visit is focussed mainly on economic matters, there is clearly an important strategic subtext which will inform a range of bilateral engagement initiatives in the years ahead. 

Many Australians may not appreciate that Jokowi’s forthcoming visit to Canberra follows a significant escalation in maritime tensions with China in Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). These tensions – manifested in the protracted presence of China Coast Guard Vessels in Indonesia’s waters over the New Year period, accompanied by Beijing’s new claim to “legitimate rights and interests” in Indonesian waters – have been interpreted in Jakarta as a direct challenge to Indonesia’s power. As such, they have become a catalyst for the current rethink on relations with China among Indonesia’s strategic elites.

In contrast to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s 2010 visit – when the Australian government attracted criticism from Indonesian foreign policy analysts for an emphasis on security issues at the expense of economic concerns – the bilateral trade and investment relationship is front and centre for Jokowi’s trip. This builds on the visit he and First Lady Iriana made to Sydney in 2017 during Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership.

Significantly, the Indonesian parliament (DPR) has now ratified the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA), just ahead of Jokowi’s vist. And despite claims of a lack of interest by the Australian business community in Indonesia, caution emanates also from more pragmatic cost-benefit calculations by Australian companies, which are well informed of both the potential and risks of doing business with Asia’s third giant.

The IA-CEPA will not immediately remove structural impediments represented by overlapping regulations, lack of legal certainty, and the lack of complementarity in the respective economies, but the deal is important symbolically for both countries. Jokowi has tied his legitimacy to expanding Indonesia’s growth to a $7 trillion economy by 2045, principally by opening the economy to increased trade and investment, and in developing Indonesia’s human capital. In his final five-year term, Jokowi is free to push through regulatory reforms evident in the sweeping omnibus laws and in the appointment of a dynamic cohort of young entrepreneurs into economic portfolios. The Coalition government in Australia has also prided itself on its economic credentials, with the conclusion of regional free trade agreements a pillar of its policy success.

There is a consensus among Indonesia’s foreign policy elites and government officials that Australia is an important relationship for Indonesia. Over the last three decades, both countries have been remarkably successful in quarantining bilateral tensions from collaborative middle power activism. This has been evident in their cooperation on the Cambodian Peace Plan, the Cairns Group of agricultural exporting countries, APEC, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and in 2013 the MIKTA middle power grouping, the latter at the height of strains over espionage allegations.

Given uncertainties about rising trade protectionism, China’s strategic ambitions, and now the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, it is likely that hedging against global risks will spur even closer cooperation between Australia and Indonesia as “like-minded” middle powers. If both countries can capitalise on the greater market access conferred by the IA-CEPA, and Jokowi can further advance his economic reform agenda domestically, the economic fundamentals will become an increasingly important pillar of the overall bilateral relationship.

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2) Military sends team to probe alleged missing helicopter debris

Jubi Published 11 hours ago on 7 February 2020 By Admin1

Jayapura, Jubi – Papua’s Regional Military Command XVII/Cendrawasih has sent a team to verify reports on the finding of debris, allegedly belonging to the missing MI-17 military helicopter, in Oksop, Pegunungan Bintang District of Papua.

“Regarding pictures of helicopter debris found by the locals in Oksop, Chief of the Regional Military Command XVII/Cendrawasih Maj. Gen (TNI) Herman Asaribab has ordered the nearest military unit to verify the information from residents,” spokesman of the military command Lt. Col. Inf Dax Sianturi said in a statement here Wednesday.

The military would coordinate with some institutions including the Silas Papare Air Base, Papua Police, Papua Search and Rescue Agency, and Pegunungan Bintang District administration, to prepare an evacuation.

Pictures of helicopter debris have gone viral in Jayapura since Tuesday, February 4, showing the debris scattered in the forest with some residents standing near it.

Other photos showed a fuel drum with a brand or company name written on it, and four long-barreled firearms allegedly owned by the military.

The Indonesian Army helicopter MI-17 that had lost contact on June 28, 2019, in Papua, is still missing despite continuous search efforts.

Since the day it disappeared from radars, there have been consistent efforts to locate it with the help of a Bell Helicopter 206 and Bell Helicopter 412 bearing registration number HA-5177.

The MI-17 helicopter took off from Oksibil Airport at 11:44 a.m. local time on June 28, 2019, and at 11:48 a.m. contacted the airport’s air traffic control (ATC) to report that it would ascend to 7,800 feet, six nautical miles toward the north. The pilot then said “thank you” at 11:49 a.m., and thereafter, all contact between him and the ATC was lost.

The helicopter, bearing registration number HA-5138, was carrying 12 passengers and crew, who had earlier flown to Okbibab in Papua to deliver logistics to soldiers serving in the area.

The crew members were pilots CPN Captain Aris and CPN Lieutenant Bambang, co-pilot First Lieutenant CPN Ahwar, Head Sergeant Suriyatna, Sergeant Dita, Head Private Dwi Purnomo, and Private Aharul.

The passengers, who were members of the Battalion 725/WRG, comprised Second Sergeant Ikrar Setya Nainggolan, Private Yanuarius Loe, Private Risno, Second Private Sujono Kaimuddin, and Second Private Tegar Hadi Sentana. (INE)

Source: ANTARA

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https://jakartaglobe.id/business/economic-contraction-shows-up-papua-as-jokowis-achilles-heel

3) Economic Contraction Shows Up Papua as Jokowi's Achilles Heel

BY :DIANA MARISKA, BERITASATU

FEBRUARY 06, 2020 

Jakarta. Economic contraction in Indonesia's easternmost regions of Maluku and Papua has shown up an Achilles heel in the government's approach to development, economists have said. 

Regional gross domestic product in Papua and Maluku shrank by 7.4 percent last year, recent data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) showed. It was the worst-performing region economically in Indonesia, partly responsible for dragging down the country's economic growth to 5.02 percent from 5.17 percent a year earlier.  

Abra El Talattov, a researcher at the Institute of Economic and Financial Development (Indef), said the region's over-reliance on the extractive sectors revealed weaknesses in the government's economic strategies.   

"One of the reasons behind the economic decline in Papua is the decline of its mining industry, the biggest contributor to GDP in that region," Abra said on Thursday.

Papua is home to Freeport Indonesia, a state-controlled miner that operates Grasberg, Indonesia's biggest gold and copper mine. The mine's output was pared down last year as it transitions operation to its underground mine.

Rapid infrastructure development in Papua – one of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's priorities – has not had the desired impact since most Papuans still rely on small-scale farming for their income. 

"Approximately 67 percent of Papuans are farmers. The government should industrialize the agriculture sector in Papua – not rely on traditional farming anymore but create a downstream industry. This will allow it to involve the private sector and improve Papua's economy," Abra said.

"Infrastructure development has failed to lift Papua out of its economic doldrums. The government might argue the effect of the development is long-term, but it should not take five to 10 years," Abra said.

Other regions in Indonesia less reliant on mining for their income fared better last year. Java, the country's manufacturing and services behemoth that accounts for 59 percent of Indonesia's $1 trillion-economy, expanded 5.5 percent. 

Bali and the Nusa Tenggara islands – the latter an increasingly popular tourist destination – expanded 5.07 percent, just above the national average. 

Palm oil-rich Sumatra and Kalimantan grew by 4.6 and 5 percent respectively, slower than the national average, as the price of one of Indonesia's main export commodities sank in the global market for most of last year. 

Bucking the trend, another agricultural center, Sulawesi, grew the fastest by 6.7 percent last year. Jusuf Kalla, the former vice president, said the varying economic performances in Indonesia's agricultural powerhouses may stem from differences in land ownership structure.   

"In Sulawesi, ownership of cocoa, cashew and coconut plantations is shared around many individual farmers. Some of the most successful ones also have extensive rice fields," Kalla said. 

Meanwhile, in Sumatra or Kalimantan, economic growth lies in the hands of giant corporations with holdings over millions of hectares of land, he said. "When palm oil and coal prices rise, growth rate on the two islands skyrockets. But, when they fall, economic growth would slow considerably, even contract," Kalla said. 

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